⚠ Direction Alerts
Metrics in conflict — only the noisy ones
6
AT_RISK
8
Investigate
14
Total
Conflicts (tap row to expand)
Avg. EPS Growth
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 30 consecutive opposing runs (locked=higher)
→ Flip to higher OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
ROI Liquidity / FCF
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 49 consecutive opposing runs (locked=lower)
→ Flip to lower OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
ROIC-FCF Quality Gate
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 69 consecutive opposing runs (locked=lower)
→ Flip to lower OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
RSI x Avg Eps Growth
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 13 consecutive opposing runs (locked=higher)
→ Flip to higher OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
SM Watson 5
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 30 consecutive opposing runs (locked=lower)
→ Flip to lower OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
Watson-ROIC Confidence Index
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 49 consecutive opposing runs (locked=lower)
→ Flip to opposite OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
FCF Yiel : D/E
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 6.71pp · strong); cohort d=+0.120 says higher
→ Control wins at N=339 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Momentum Adj. Comprehensive Score (w/RSI)
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 2.88pp · moderate); cohort d=+0.102 says higher
→ Control wins at N=324 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
P/B
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 14.88pp · strong); cohort d=+0.269 says higher
→ Control wins at N=437 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
PFCF v EBITDA
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 5.79pp · strong); cohort d=+0.279 says higher
→ Control wins at N=213 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
PFCF vs PE Spread
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 0.77pp · weak); cohort d=+0.389 says higher
→ Control wins at N=167 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Pfcf vs PE Spread
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 0.77pp · weak); cohort d=+0.389 says higher
→ Control wins at N=167 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Risk to Value Growth
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 8.97pp · strong); cohort d=+0.355 says higher
→ Control wins at N=494 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROIC/Ebitda Spread
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 2.45pp · moderate); cohort d=-0.130 says lower
→ Control wins at N=213 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
What This Shows
Two alert classes: AT_RISK = locked direction has 3+ consecutive runs disagreeing with cohort evidence (strong = 10+). INVESTIGATE = control group says one direction, cohort d says the other. At control N≥50, control wins by default.
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