⚠ Direction Alerts
Metrics in conflict — only the noisy ones
2
AT_RISK
15
Investigate
17
Total
Conflicts (tap row to expand)
ROI Liquidity / FCF
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 73 consecutive opposing runs (locked=lower)
→ Flip to higher OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
SM Watson 5
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 54 consecutive opposing runs (locked=lower)
→ Flip to opposite OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
Avg. EPS Growth
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 9.40pp · strong); cohort d=-0.104 says lower
→ Control wins at N=316 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Beta x ROE x EV/EBITDA
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 5.02pp · strong); cohort d=-0.109 says lower
→ Control wins at N=198 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
D/E
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 12.42pp · strong); cohort d=+0.102 says higher
→ Control wins at N=399 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
debt_equity
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 12.42pp · strong); cohort d=+0.102 says higher
→ Control wins at N=399 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
EPS next Y
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 6.95pp · strong); cohort d=-0.110 says lower
→ Control wins at N=312 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Mrkt Misprice
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 7.33pp · strong); cohort d=-0.216 says lower
→ Control wins at N=215 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Oper Margin
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 22.22pp · strong); cohort d=+0.130 says higher
→ Control wins at N=384 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
P/C
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 8.79pp · strong); cohort d=-0.145 says lower
→ Control wins at N=389 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
P/C
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 8.79pp · strong); cohort d=-0.145 says lower
→ Control wins at N=389 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROA
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 19.83pp · strong); cohort d=+0.147 says higher
→ Control wins at N=423 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROA
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 19.83pp · strong); cohort d=+0.147 says higher
→ Control wins at N=423 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROIC Cap Valuation
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 13.89pp · strong); cohort d=+0.164 says higher
→ Control wins at N=219 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
RSI x Avg Eps Growth
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 13.60pp · strong); cohort d=-0.101 says lower
→ Control wins at N=316 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
RSI-Net EBITDA Signal
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 7.73pp · strong); cohort d=+0.259 says higher
→ Control wins at N=494 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Watson-ROIC Confidence Index
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 12.43pp · strong); cohort d=+0.148 says higher
→ Control wins at N=215 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
What This Shows
Two alert classes: AT_RISK = locked direction has 3+ consecutive runs disagreeing with cohort evidence (strong = 10+). INVESTIGATE = control group says one direction, cohort d says the other. At control N≥50, control wins by default.
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