⚠ Direction Alerts
Metrics in conflict — only the noisy ones
1
AT_RISK
20
Investigate
21
Total
Conflicts (tap row to expand)
ROI Liquidity / FCF
AT_RISK
AT_RISK — 71 consecutive opposing runs (locked=lower)
→ Flip to higher OR remove from gate. Need 10+ consec + |cohort_d|≥0.15 to flip.
Avg. EPS Growth
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 5.26pp · strong); cohort d=-0.127 says lower
→ Control wins at N=317 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Capital Return Spread
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 4.77pp · strong); cohort d=+0.109 says higher
→ Control wins at N=494 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
EPS next Y
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 7.02pp · strong); cohort d=-0.132 says lower
→ Control wins at N=315 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Mrkt Misprice
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 6.63pp · strong); cohort d=-0.114 says lower
→ Control wins at N=210 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Oper Margin
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 28.83pp · strong); cohort d=+0.146 says higher
→ Control wins at N=374 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
P/B
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 11.80pp · strong); cohort d=+0.164 says higher
→ Control wins at N=430 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
PFCF v EBITDA
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 0.37pp · noise); cohort d=+0.236 says higher
→ Control wins at N=210 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
PFCF vs PE Spread
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 3.75pp · strong); cohort d=+0.234 says higher
→ Control wins at N=165 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
Pfcf vs PE Spread
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 3.75pp · strong); cohort d=+0.234 says higher
→ Control wins at N=165 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROA
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 22.61pp · strong); cohort d=+0.120 says higher
→ Control wins at N=417 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROA
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 22.61pp · strong); cohort d=+0.120 says higher
→ Control wins at N=417 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROI
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 24.53pp · strong); cohort d=+0.120 says higher
→ Control wins at N=412 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROIC
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 24.45pp · strong); cohort d=+0.122 says higher
→ Control wins at N=414 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROIC
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 24.45pp · strong); cohort d=+0.122 says higher
→ Control wins at N=414 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
ROIC-EBITDA Quality Composite
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 2.92pp · moderate); cohort d=-0.196 says lower
→ Control wins at N=186 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
rsi
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 0.29pp · noise); cohort d=+0.591 says higher
→ Control wins at N=482 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
RSI
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 0.29pp · noise); cohort d=+0.591 says higher
→ Control wins at N=482 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
RSI x Avg Eps Growth
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 8.33pp · strong); cohort d=-0.126 says lower
→ Control wins at N=317 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
SM Watson 3
INVESTIGATE
Control says higher (sep 17.96pp · strong); cohort d=-0.207 says lower
→ Control wins at N=207 — direction = higher. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
SM Watson 5
INVESTIGATE
Control says lower (sep 3.82pp · strong); cohort d=+0.102 says higher
→ Control wins at N=183 — direction = lower. Watch: cohort needs 10+ consec + |d|≥0.15 to challenge.
What This Shows
Two alert classes: AT_RISK = locked direction has 3+ consecutive runs disagreeing with cohort evidence (strong = 10+). INVESTIGATE = control group says one direction, cohort d says the other. At control N≥50, control wins by default.
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