Verdict
UNDERPERFORMING
p=0.002 · 95% CI: [-25.60, -5.49]
Need N≥150 treatment obs for p<0.05 significance. Currently 11/150 (7%)
Returns vs SPY — Gate-Filtered Random is the primary gate-effectiveness measurement
+60.3pp
Gate-Filtered (N=8)
-0.5pp
FORMAL Recs (N=11)
GATE vs RANDOM · REC-PROCESS GAP
Gate-Filtered vs Random: +56.4pp
·
FORMAL Recs vs Gate-Filtered: -72.0pp
Both descriptive surface stats — not confirmatory hypothesis tests.
WIN RATE & AVG RETURN — DIRECTIONAL ONLY
Win%: Recs 7.0%
vs Rnd 33.0%
·
edge -26.0pp
AvgRet: Recs +2.5%
vs Rnd +24.5%
(-21.9pp)
⚠ Control from seed date, recs from rec date — windows not aligned
Return by Gate Score — does scoring higher = better returns?
| Score tier |
Excess vs SPY |
N |
| 6/6 (all gate) |
— |
0 |
| 4–5/6 |
+60.33pp |
8 |
| 2–3/6 |
+12.68pp |
35 |
| 0–1/6 |
+2.22pp |
451 |
Direction Signals — locked vs control, tap header to sort
| Metric |
Locked |
Control |
✓✗ |
Streak |
Cohen d |
Sep |
| RSI |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
0✓ |
+0.579 |
22.18pp |
| rsi |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
1✓ |
+0.579 |
22.18pp |
| Dividend % |
lower |
lower |
✓ |
0✓ |
-0.557 |
12.41pp |
| Watson1 |
— |
higher |
? |
— |
+0.339 |
12.81pp |
| EPS-ROA PE Score |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
51✓ |
+0.277 |
11.61pp |
| RSI-Net EBITDA Signal |
higher |
lower |
✗ |
0✗ |
+0.259 |
7.73pp |
| EPS next 5Y |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
1✓ |
+0.243 |
15.46pp |
| P/C Multiple |
lower |
lower |
✓ |
0✓ |
-0.218 |
29.04pp |
| P/C Multiple |
lower |
lower |
✓ |
1✓ |
-0.218 |
29.04pp |
| EV/EBITDA |
lower |
higher |
✗ |
0✗ |
+0.217 |
26.42pp |
Alerts
⚠ 2 direction disagreement(s)
✗ RSI-Net EBITDA Signal — locked higher · control lower
✗ EV/EBITDA — locked lower · control higher
★ New signal candidates: Quality Value Score, Quality Value Score (Test Version), FCF Yiel : D/E, P/S v P/C Multiple, Profit Efficiency Value
✓ 4 control tickers scoring 4+/5 + outperforming: PTGX, CDNA, ACCL, PTRN
Top Combo Validation
All Recommendations — tap header to sort
| Ticker |
Date |
Rules |
Return |
Status |
| XBP |
3/28/2026 |
4/6 |
0 |
Recommended |
| DLO |
3/28/2026 |
6/6 |
0 |
Recommended |
| ABTC |
3/28/2026 |
4/6 |
0 |
Recommended |
| PAAS |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| EVCM |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| NTST |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| ABBV |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| ITRN |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
-2.07% |
Recommended+Bought |
| QNST |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| BWMX |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| TAK |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| HALO |
3/24/2026 |
4/6 |
8.30% |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| CART |
3/24/2026 |
4/6 |
-6.40% |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| ARM |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| CAI |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| FORM |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| PTRN |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| ANIK |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| BLFS |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| FSLY |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| HNGE |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| OMDA |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| PTGX |
2026-08-23 |
5/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| RDVT |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| SMWB |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| ACAD |
2026-08-23 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| CPNG |
2026-07-05 |
4/5 |
— |
Recommended |
| TTWO |
2026-07-05 |
4/5 |
— |
Recommended |
| ACCL |
2026-07-05 |
4/5 |
— |
Recommended |
| QXO |
2026-06-21 |
4/5 |
0.1126 |
Recommended |
| RSI |
2026-06-14 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended+Bought |
| ALGM |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended+Bought |
| ATRC |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| MRCY |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| U |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| BLZE |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| COMP |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| RGR |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| WYY |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| CDNA |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| MMI |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| HY |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| ASND |
2026-06-07 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| AGYS |
2026-06-05 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| GHM |
2026-05-11 |
4/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| VECO |
2026-05-10 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended+Bought |
| WELL |
2026-05-10 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended+Bought |
| ARGX |
2026-05-05 |
5/5 |
-3.5656 |
Recommended+Bought |
| SLNO |
2026-05-02 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| GWRE |
2026-04-30 |
4/5 |
6.7534 |
Recommended |
| RDDT |
2026-04-29 |
5/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought |
| SHOP |
2026-04-29 |
5/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| ECO |
2026-04-04 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| GRND |
2026-04-01 |
4/5 |
0.3347 |
Recommended |
| ORLA |
2026-04-01 |
4/5 |
1.9749 |
Recommended |
| SRAD |
2026-04-01 |
4/5 |
1.7438 |
Recommended |
| EGAN |
2026-03-31 |
5/5 |
-0.6337 |
Recommended |
| AU |
2026-03-31 |
4/5 |
4.5399 |
Recommended |
| LII |
2026-03-31 |
4/5 |
1.1850 |
Recommended |