Verdict
No edge yet
p=0.155 · 95% CI: [-31.29, +4.99]
Need N≥150 treatment obs for p<0.05 significance. Currently 12/150 (8%)
Returns vs SPY — Gate-Filtered Random is the primary gate-effectiveness measurement
+30.8pp
Gate-Filtered (N=8)
-0.6pp
FORMAL Recs (N=12)
GATE vs RANDOM · REC-PROCESS GAP
Gate-Filtered vs Random: +26.2pp
·
FORMAL Recs vs Gate-Filtered: -39.4pp
Both descriptive surface stats — not confirmatory hypothesis tests.
Return by Gate Score — does scoring higher = better returns?
| Score tier |
Excess vs SPY |
N |
| 6/6 (all gate) |
— |
0 |
| 4–5/6 |
+30.81pp |
8 |
| 2–3/6 |
+5.58pp |
41 |
| 0–1/6 |
+4.03pp |
445 |
Direction Signals — locked vs control, tap header to sort
| Metric |
Locked |
Control |
✓✗ |
Streak |
Cohen d |
Sep |
| RSI |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
0✓ |
+1.093 |
8.26pp |
| rsi |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
1✓ |
+1.093 |
8.26pp |
| Watson1 |
— |
higher |
? |
— |
+0.861 |
20.27pp |
| EPS next 5Y |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
1✓ |
+0.703 |
23.82pp |
| ROI Liquidity / FCF |
lower |
lower |
✓ |
0✓ |
-0.562 |
0.66pp |
| EPS YY Growth |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
0✓ |
+0.501 |
2.27pp |
| EPS-ROA PE Score |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
36✓ |
+0.436 |
7.75pp |
| RSI x Avg Eps Growth |
higher |
higher |
✓ |
0✓ |
+0.405 |
14.77pp |
| P/C Multiple |
lower |
lower |
✓ |
0✓ |
-0.402 |
10.33pp |
| P/C Multiple |
lower |
lower |
✓ |
1✓ |
-0.402 |
10.33pp |
Alerts
★ New signal candidates: Quality Value Score, Quality Value Score (Test Version), FCF Yiel : D/E, P/S v P/C Multiple, Profit Efficiency Value
✓ 2 control tickers scoring 4+/6 + outperforming: KVHI, CDNA
Top Combo Validation
All Recommendations — tap header to sort
| Ticker |
Date |
Rules |
Return |
Status |
| XBP |
3/28/2026 |
4/6 |
0 |
Recommended |
| DLO |
3/28/2026 |
6/6 |
0 |
Recommended |
| ABTC |
3/28/2026 |
4/6 |
0 |
Recommended |
| PAAS |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| EVCM |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| NTST |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| ABBV |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| ITRN |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
-2.07% |
Recommended+Bought |
| QNST |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| BWMX |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| TAK |
3/24/2026 |
5/6 |
— |
Recommended |
| HALO |
3/24/2026 |
4/6 |
8.30% |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| CART |
3/24/2026 |
4/6 |
-6.40% |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| GHM |
2026-05-11 |
4/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| VECO |
2026-05-10 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended+Bought |
| WELL |
2026-05-10 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended+Bought |
| ARGX |
2026-05-05 |
5/5 |
-3.5656 |
Recommended+Bought |
| SLNO |
2026-05-02 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| GWRE |
2026-04-30 |
4/5 |
6.7534 |
Recommended |
| RDDT |
2026-04-29 |
5/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| SHOP |
2026-04-29 |
5/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| CDNS |
2026-04-26 |
3/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| CVNA |
2026-04-21 |
2/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| DDOG |
2026-04-21 |
2/5 |
#DIV/0! |
Recommended+Bought+Sold |
| ECO |
2026-04-04 |
4/5 |
0.0000 |
Recommended |
| GRND |
2026-04-01 |
4/5 |
0.3347 |
Recommended |
| ORLA |
2026-04-01 |
4/5 |
1.9749 |
Recommended |
| SRAD |
2026-04-01 |
4/5 |
1.7438 |
Recommended |
| EGAN |
2026-03-31 |
5/5 |
-0.6337 |
Recommended |
| AU |
2026-03-31 |
4/5 |
4.5399 |
Recommended |
| LII |
2026-03-31 |
4/5 |
1.1850 |
Recommended |