✦ Combined Signal v1
2026-05-23 · fused per-gate evidence
2,592
N combined
79
N formal
2,513
N shadow
-14.2pp
vs Ctrl
Totals (all gates fused)
Win rate combined
46.5%
Avg return combined
+7.86%
Control win rate
71.9%
Control avg return
+22.08%
Welch p-value
Per-Gate Breakdown
v5_pretrack RETIRED
-14.6pp
N: 8 (8 formal + 0 shadow) · win 75.0% · avg +7.51%
v4_pretrack RETIRED
-19.1pp
N: 12 (12 formal + 0 shadow) · win 41.7% · avg +2.96%
v3_pretrack RETIRED
-20.0pp
N: 15 (15 formal + 0 shadow) · win 57.1% · avg +2.07%
v12 ACTIVE
-16.4pp
N: 236 (16 formal + 220 shadow) · win 48.9% · avg +5.69%
v10 RETIRED
-18.6pp
N: 498 (16 formal + 482 shadow) · win 51.4% · avg +3.48%
v9 RETIRED
-12.7pp
N: 1,813 (2 formal + 1,811 shadow) · win 44.6% · avg +9.40%
v8 RETIRED
-26.1pp
N: 4 (4 formal + 0 shadow) · win 0.0% · avg -3.99%
v7 RETIRED
-15.6pp
N: 6 (6 formal + 0 shadow) · win 100.0% · avg +6.50%
v6 RETIRED
N: 0 (0 formal + 0 shadow) · win · avg
What This Is
Combined Signal Layer (CSL) v1 fuses FORMAL + SHADOW recommendation events into one canonical signal source per gate version. Fusion: equal-weight additive (n_combined = n_formal + n_shadow). All sources stay untouched — this is a read-only aggregation.

Phase A (today): advisory only. No consumer flips its primary signal source yet. Phase B = dual reporting in SCI + SIL refactor. Phase C = constitutional update (GOALS.md N≥150 reads combined) — gated behind explicit user approval.
Design: references/COMBINED_SIGNAL_LAYER_DESIGN.md