✦ Combined Signal v1
2026-07-19 · fused per-gate evidence
2,606
N combined
86
N formal
2,520
N shadow
-12.0pp
vs Ctrl
Totals (all gates fused)
Win rate combined
50.4%
Avg return combined
+10.10%
Control win rate
68.0%
Control avg return
+22.07%
Welch p-value
Per-Gate Breakdown
v5_pretrack RETIRED
-14.6pp
N: 8 (8 formal + 0 shadow) · win 75.0% · avg +7.51%
v4_pretrack RETIRED
-19.1pp
N: 12 (12 formal + 0 shadow) · win 41.7% · avg +2.96%
v3_pretrack RETIRED
-20.0pp
N: 15 (15 formal + 0 shadow) · win 57.1% · avg +2.07%
v12 ACTIVE
-13.1pp
N: 262 (35 formal + 227 shadow) · win 53.9% · avg +8.99%
v10 RETIRED
-14.7pp
N: 488 (6 formal + 482 shadow) · win 55.8% · avg +7.35%
v9 RETIRED
-10.9pp
N: 1,811 (0 formal + 1,811 shadow) · win 48.3% · avg +11.13%
v8 RETIRED
-26.1pp
N: 4 (4 formal + 0 shadow) · win 0.0% · avg -3.99%
v7 RETIRED
-15.6pp
N: 6 (6 formal + 0 shadow) · win 100.0% · avg +6.50%
v6 RETIRED
N: 0 (0 formal + 0 shadow) · win · avg
What This Is
Combined Signal Layer (CSL) v1 fuses FORMAL + SHADOW recommendation events into one canonical signal source per gate version. Fusion: equal-weight additive (n_combined = n_formal + n_shadow). All sources stay untouched — this is a read-only aggregation.

Phase A (today): advisory only. No consumer flips its primary signal source yet. Phase B = dual reporting in SCI + SIL refactor. Phase C = constitutional update (GOALS.md N≥150 reads combined) — gated behind explicit user approval.
Design: references/COMBINED_SIGNAL_LAYER_DESIGN.md