🕰 Gate History

9 gates · 1 active · 8 retired · 2,606 recs analyzed · Generated 2026-07-20T03:37:27+00:00 (0.0h ago)

📈 Cumulative Trajectory — Project-Level View

Cumulative numbers aggregate gate versions of different rule compositions. N (count) and per-metric stability are gate-agnostic and statistically valid to sum. Excess vs control is weighted by n_combined per gate; market-regime drift may bias the sum. Cumulative WIN RATE is intentionally NOT shown — denominator depends on gate composition (loose vs tight gates pass different ticker counts; pooling produces a misleading scalar). See references/COMBINED_SIGNAL_LAYER_DESIGN.md for the full methodology.

1️⃣ Cumulative N (count of recommendations)

2,606 total · 86 formal · 2,520 shadow

Per-gate breakdown (9 gates)
GateTitleStatusFormalShadowCombined
v5_pretrackPretracking 5-rule v5 (placeholder gate)retired808
v4_pretrackPretracking 6-rule v2 (FCF-EBITDA+ROIC-FCF)retired12012
v3_pretrackPretracking 6-rule v1retired15015
v12User Curated Lean Gateactive35227262
v10New Metrics Gateretired6482488
v9Watson-ROIC Reintroductionretired01,8111,811
v8Weighted FCF + P/S-P/C Rebalanceretired404
v7FCF-EBITDA Convergence Swapretired606
v6Close Call Decision Comboretired000

2️⃣ Cumulative Excess vs Control (weighted by N)

-12.00% across 2,606 recommendations

Excess vs control group, weighted by n_combined per gate. Spans bull→flat market periods (Mar–Apr 2026).

Per-gate breakdown
GateNExcess (pp)
v5_pretrack8-14.55%
v4_pretrack12-19.11%
v3_pretrack15-20.00%
v12262-13.08%
v10488-14.71%
v91,811-10.94%
v84-26.06%
v76-15.56%
v60—

3️⃣ Per-Metric Direction Stability (gate-agnostic)

71 metrics scored by Signal Intelligence Layer · top 10 shown

Per-metric direction stability is gate-agnostic by design (SYSTEM_STANDARDS §3). Aggregation across gate versions is statistically valid.

MetricStarsConfidenceMPS
eps-roa pe score★★★★★87B
fcf efficency★★★★★84B
quality value score★★★★★82C
rsi-net ebitda signal★★★★★76B
roic/ebitda spread★★★★★75A
sm watson 3★★★★★71C
rev growth efficiency★★★★★66C
sm2: growth-momentum premium★★★★★65C
fcf quality score★★★★★65D
quality value score (test version)★★★★★62A

📐 Worked Example: v9 → v10 transition ⚠ Composition shifted

Both gates' returns shown side-by-side AND combined — illustrates apples-to-apples math vs composition-shift risk.

GateTitleNExcess vs Control (pp)
v9Watson-ROIC Reintroduction1,811-10.94%
v10New Metrics Gate488-14.71%
Combined (weighted by N)2,299-11.74%
C v12 #949 User Curated Lean Gate 58% win · +9.7% avg · n=237 ✓ ACTIVE
📅 2026-04-28 → live · 83 day(s) · 262 recs total · overlap: NONE · grade: C (OK)
🧱 Composition (5 rules · stars + separation per rule)
RSI-Net EBITDA Signal★★★★★13.2pp · strong≥ 248.62 (higher wins)48% data
sm_col: 65
direction: higher wins
MPS grade: B
SIL confidence: 76/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -13.20pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
FCF Efficency★★★★★13.1pp · strong≤ 0.05 (lower wins)46% data
sm_col: 31
direction: lower wins
MPS grade: B
SIL confidence: 84/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -13.08pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
ROIC-EBITDA Quality Composite★★★★★2.9pp · moderate≥ 153.57 (higher wins)44% data
sm_col: 59
direction: higher wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 51/100
Control separation (sep_pp): +2.92pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: higher
Avg. EPS Growth★★★★★5.3pp · strong≥ 37.03 (higher wins)70% data
sm_col: 52
direction: higher wins
MPS grade: B
SIL confidence: 62/100
Control separation (sep_pp): +5.26pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: higher
FCF Quality Score★★★★★13.4pp · strong≤ 0.19 (lower wins)32% data
sm_col: 57
direction: lower wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 65/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -13.45pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
📋 Of 35 formal recs this gate produced, 14 (40%) were actually bought (real money). Plus 227 shadow qualifiers (3+/N tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs).
💰 Real Money (bought) 6 priced / 14 total · 8 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
Recs we actually purchased — was_bought=TRUE. The truest measure of how much money this gate made or lost.
Win rate
33.3%
Avg return
-0.84%
Median return
-0.98%
Best
KNSA +1.7%
Worst
ARGX -3.6%
Top winners: KNSA +1.7% · VICR +0.6%
Top losers: ARGX -3.6% · HIMX -1.8% · BWAY -1.4%
Formal Recs (logged, not bought) 5 priced / 21 total · 16 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
Tickers that scored high enough to be formally logged as a rec but were never purchased. Useful counterfactual: would we have done better if we had bought them?
Win rate
40.0%
Avg return
+0.53%
Median return
-0.50%
Best
GWRE +6.8%
Worst
DCTH -2.2%
Top winners: GWRE +6.8% · QXO +0.1%
Top losers: DCTH -2.2% · INNV -1.5% · ARLO -0.5%
Shadow (qualified, not bought) 226 priced / 227 total · 1 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
Tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs (3+/N qualifiers) — unbiased forward-looking signal of gate selection quality, ~60× larger N than real money.
Win rate
59.3%
Avg return
+10.19%
Median return
+3.35%
Best
WYY +171.0%
Worst
FLD -67.3%
⚠ Avg (+10.2%) and median (+3.4%) diverge significantly — a few outlier returns are skewing the average. Median is more representative of typical recs.
Top winners: WYY +171.0% · WYFI +146.3% · VPG +123.4%
Top losers: FLD -67.3% · HRTX -64.5% · IDN -46.6%
Combined (all three) 237 priced / 262 total · 25 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
All three streams blended for largest-N view of gate performance.
Win rate
58.2%
Avg return
+9.71%
Median return
+3.05%
Best
—
Worst
—
⚠ Avg (+9.7%) and median (+3.0%) diverge significantly — a few outlier returns are skewing the average. Median is more representative of typical recs.
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: — none with negative return
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: Momentum (1) · Debt_Capital (1) · Growth (1) · FCF (1)
Bucket gaps: Profitability, Valuation, Quality_Composite, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: 48.1% · min: 32.4%
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
C v10 #8473 New Metrics Gate 56% win · +7.4% avg · n=485 ⏸ RETIRED
📅 2026-04-21 → 2026-04-28 · 7 day(s) · 488 recs total · overlap: NONE · grade: C (OK)
🧱 Composition (5 rules · stars + separation per rule)
Quality Value Score★★★★★22.1pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 27
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 82/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -22.06pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
FCF Efficency★★★★★13.1pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 31
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: B
SIL confidence: 84/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -13.08pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
FCF-EBITDA Convergence Score★★★★★6.4pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 54
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 55/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -6.42pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
EPS-ROA PE Score★★★★★12.9pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 61
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: B
SIL confidence: 87/100
Control separation (sep_pp): +12.95pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: higher
ROI Liquidity / FCF★★★★★6.5pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 60
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: F
SIL confidence: 32/100
Control separation (sep_pp): +6.55pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: higher
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
📋 Of 6 formal recs this gate produced, 4 (67%) were actually bought (real money). Plus 482 shadow qualifiers (3+/N tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs).
💰 Real Money (bought) 2 priced / 4 total · 2 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
Recs we actually purchased — was_bought=TRUE. The truest measure of how much money this gate made or lost.
Win rate
50.0%
Avg return
-1.09%
Median return
-1.09%
Best
ONTO +1.5%
Worst
MTSI -3.7%
Top winners: ONTO +1.5%
Top losers: MTSI -3.7%
Formal Recs (logged, not bought) 2 priced / 2 total
Tickers that scored high enough to be formally logged as a rec but were never purchased. Useful counterfactual: would we have done better if we had bought them?
Win rate
0.0%
Avg return
-5.33%
Median return
-5.33%
Best
ROKU -4.0%
Worst
ONC -6.6%
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: ONC -6.6% · ROKU -4.0%
Shadow (qualified, not bought) 481 priced / 482 total · 1 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
Tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs (3+/N qualifiers) — unbiased forward-looking signal of gate selection quality, ~60× larger N than real money.
Win rate
56.1%
Avg return
+7.46%
Median return
+2.46%
Best
CISS +290.7%
Worst
KLAC -86.8%
Top winners: CISS +290.7% · APPS +211.8% · WYY +210.2%
Top losers: KLAC -86.8% · CRMT -79.1% · VRRM -70.2%
Combined (all three) 485 priced / 488 total · 3 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
All three streams blended for largest-N view of gate performance.
Win rate
55.9%
Avg return
+7.37%
Median return
+1.81%
Best
—
Worst
—
⚠ Avg (+7.4%) and median (+1.8%) diverge significantly — a few outlier returns are skewing the average. Median is more representative of typical recs.
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: — none with negative return
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: FCF (2) · Quality_Composite (1) · Profitability (1)
Bucket gaps: Valuation, Growth, Debt_Capital, Momentum, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: n/a (retired) · min: n/a (retired)
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
D v9 #7600 Watson-ROIC Reintroduction 48% win · +11.1% avg · n=1810 ⏸ RETIRED
📅 2026-04-07 → 2026-04-21 · 14 day(s) · 1811 recs total · overlap: NONE · grade: D (WEAK)
🧱 Composition (5 rules · stars + separation per rule)
Quality Value Score★★★★★22.1pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 27
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 82/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -22.06pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
FCF Efficency★★★★★13.1pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 31
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: B
SIL confidence: 84/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -13.08pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
FCF-EBITDA Convergence Score★★★★★6.4pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 54
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 55/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -6.42pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
P/S v P/C Multiple★★★★★18.2pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 30
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: A
SIL confidence: 61/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -18.18pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
Watson-ROIC Confidence Index★★★★★0.0pp · noisethreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 56
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 12/100
Control separation (sep_pp): +0.00pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
💰 Real Money (bought): No recs logged under this gate
Formal Recs (logged, not bought): No recs logged under this gate
Shadow (qualified, not bought) 1810 priced / 1811 total · 1 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
Tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs (3+/N qualifiers) — unbiased forward-looking signal of gate selection quality, ~60× larger N than real money.
Win rate
48.3%
Avg return
+11.13%
Median return
-0.88%
Best
AIFU +3367.2%
Worst
KLAC -86.1%
⚠ Avg (+11.1%) and median (-0.9%) diverge significantly — a few outlier returns are skewing the average. Median is more representative of typical recs.
Top winners: AIFU +3367.2% · AIOS +2181.4% · VEEE +2040.9%
Top losers: KLAC -86.1% · SOPA -84.6% · CVNA -83.9%
Combined (all three) 1810 priced / 1811 total · 1 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
All three streams blended for largest-N view of gate performance.
Win rate
48.3%
Avg return
+11.13%
Median return
-0.88%
Best
—
Worst
—
⚠ Avg (+11.1%) and median (-0.9%) diverge significantly — a few outlier returns are skewing the average. Median is more representative of typical recs.
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: — none with negative return
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: Quality_Composite (2) · FCF (1) · Valuation (1)
Bucket gaps: Profitability, Growth, Debt_Capital, Momentum, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: n/a (retired) · min: n/a (retired)
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
? v8 #5031 Weighted FCF + P/S-P/C Rebalance 0% win · -5.3% avg · n=3 ⏸ RETIRED
📅 2026-04-02 → 2026-04-07 · 5 day(s) · 4 recs total · overlap: NONE
🧱 Composition (5 rules · stars + separation per rule)
Weighted FCF Efficiency★★★★★3.8pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 42
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 51/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -3.82pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
SM Watson 5★★★★★3.8pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 53
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 31/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -3.82pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
Quality Value Score★★★★★22.1pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 27
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 82/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -22.06pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
P/S v P/C Multiple★★★★★18.2pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 30
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: A
SIL confidence: 61/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -18.18pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
PEG Adj. Hybrid Growth★★★★★5.5pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 43
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 42/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -5.54pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
📋 Of 4 formal recs this gate produced, 0 (0%) were actually bought (real money). Plus 0 shadow qualifiers (3+/N tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs).
💰 Real Money (bought): No recs logged under this gate
Formal Recs (logged, not bought) 3 priced / 4 total · 1 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
Tickers that scored high enough to be formally logged as a rec but were never purchased. Useful counterfactual: would we have done better if we had bought them?
Win rate
0.0%
Avg return
-5.32%
Median return
-5.72%
Best
LVS -2.8%
Worst
MRK -7.4%
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: MRK -7.4% · TFPM -5.7% · LVS -2.8%
Shadow (qualified, not bought): No recs logged under this gate
Combined (all three) 3 priced / 4 total · 1 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
All three streams blended for largest-N view of gate performance.
Win rate
0.0%
Avg return
-5.32%
Median return
-5.72%
Best
—
Worst
—
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: — none with negative return
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: Quality_Composite (2) · FCF (1) · Valuation (1) · Growth (1)
Bucket gaps: Profitability, Debt_Capital, Momentum, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: n/a (retired) · min: n/a (retired)
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
— v6 #— Close Call Decision Combo no priced data yet ⏸ RETIRED
📅 2026-04-01 → 2026-04-01 · 0 day(s) · 0 recs total · overlap: HIGH
🧱 Composition (5 rules · stars + separation per rule)
FCF Quality Score★★★★★13.4pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 57
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 65/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -13.45pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
SM Watson 5★★★★★3.8pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 53
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 31/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -3.82pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
PFCF v EBITDA★★★★★0.4pp · noisethreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 34
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 33/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -0.37pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
ROIC/Ebitda Spread★★★★★9.2pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 41
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: A
SIL confidence: 75/100
Control separation (sep_pp): +9.23pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: higher
Quality Value Score★★★★★22.1pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 27
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 82/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -22.06pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
💰 Real Money (bought): No recs logged under this gate
Formal Recs (logged, not bought): No recs logged under this gate
Shadow (qualified, not bought): No recs logged under this gate
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: FCF (2) · Quality_Composite (2) · Debt_Capital (1)
Bucket gaps: Profitability, Valuation, Growth, Momentum, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: n/a (retired) · min: n/a (retired)
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
A v7 #4920 FCF-EBITDA Convergence Swap 100% win · +6.5% avg · n=6 ⏸ RETIRED
📅 2026-04-01 → 2026-04-02 · 1 day(s) · 6 recs total · overlap: HIGH · grade: A (STRONG)
🧱 Composition (5 rules · stars + separation per rule)
FCF Quality Score★★★★★13.4pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 57
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 65/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -13.45pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
SM Watson 5★★★★★3.8pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 53
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 31/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -3.82pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
PFCF v EBITDA★★★★★0.4pp · noisethreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 34
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 33/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -0.37pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
FCF-EBITDA Convergence Score★★★★★6.4pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 54
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 55/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -6.42pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
Quality Value Score★★★★★22.1pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 27
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: C
SIL confidence: 82/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -22.06pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
📋 Of 6 formal recs this gate produced, 1 (17%) were actually bought (real money). Plus 0 shadow qualifiers (3+/N tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs).
💰 Real Money (bought) 1 priced / 1 total
Recs we actually purchased — was_bought=TRUE. The truest measure of how much money this gate made or lost.
Win rate
100.0%
Avg return
+0.26%
Median return
+0.26%
Best
MCO +0.3%
Worst
MCO +0.3%
Top winners: MCO +0.3%
Top losers: — none with negative return
Formal Recs (logged, not bought) 5 priced / 5 total
Tickers that scored high enough to be formally logged as a rec but were never purchased. Useful counterfactual: would we have done better if we had bought them?
Win rate
100.0%
Avg return
+7.75%
Median return
+1.97%
Best
NXPI +24.8%
Worst
GRND +0.3%
⚠ Avg (+7.8%) and median (+2.0%) diverge significantly — a few outlier returns are skewing the average. Median is more representative of typical recs.
Top winners: NXPI +24.8% · RELX +9.9% · ORLA +2.0%
Top losers: — none with negative return
Shadow (qualified, not bought): No recs logged under this gate
Combined (all three) 6 priced / 6 total
All three streams blended for largest-N view of gate performance.
Win rate
100.0%
Avg return
+6.50%
Median return
+1.86%
Best
—
Worst
—
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: — none with negative return
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: FCF (3) · Quality_Composite (2)
Bucket gaps: Profitability, Valuation, Growth, Debt_Capital, Momentum, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: n/a (retired) · min: n/a (retired)
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
A v5_pretrack #7814 Pretracking 5-rule v5 (placeholder gate) 75% win · +7.5% avg · n=8 ⏸ RETIRED
📅 2026-03-31 → 2026-03-31 · 0 day(s) · 8 recs total · grade: A (STRONG)
🧱 Composition (5 rules · stars + separation per rule)
FCF Quality★ n/asep n/athreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: ?
direction: unknown wins
SM Watson 5★★★★★3.8pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 53
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 31/100
Control separation (sep_pp): -3.82pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: lower
PFCF vEBITDA★ n/asep n/athreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: ?
direction: unknown wins
ROIC/Ebitda Spread★★★★★9.2pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 41
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: A
SIL confidence: 75/100
Control separation (sep_pp): +9.23pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: higher
Mrkt Misprice★★★★★6.6pp · strongthreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: 38
direction: unknown wins
MPS grade: D
SIL confidence: 38/100
Control separation (sep_pp): +6.63pp (return spread between high-scoring and low-scoring tickers in the 500-stock control group — current snapshot, not the historical value at gate retirement)
Control direction: higher
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
📋 Of 8 formal recs this gate produced, 2 (25%) were actually bought (real money). Plus 0 shadow qualifiers (3+/N tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs).
💰 Real Money (bought) 2 priced / 2 total
Recs we actually purchased — was_bought=TRUE. The truest measure of how much money this gate made or lost.
Win rate
100.0%
Avg return
+26.13%
Median return
+26.13%
Best
CLS +40.6%
Worst
PSIX +11.7%
Top winners: CLS +40.6% · PSIX +11.7%
Top losers: — none with negative return
Formal Recs (logged, not bought) 6 priced / 6 total
Tickers that scored high enough to be formally logged as a rec but were never purchased. Useful counterfactual: would we have done better if we had bought them?
Win rate
66.7%
Avg return
+1.31%
Median return
+0.73%
Best
PHOE +8.9%
Worst
VRSK -6.4%
Top winners: PHOE +8.9% · AU +4.5% · LII +1.2%
Top losers: VRSK -6.4% · EGAN -0.6%
Shadow (qualified, not bought): No recs logged under this gate
Combined (all three) 8 priced / 8 total
All three streams blended for largest-N view of gate performance.
Win rate
75.0%
Avg return
+7.51%
Median return
+2.86%
Best
—
Worst
—
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: — none with negative return
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: Quality_Composite (1) · Debt_Capital (1) · Valuation (1)
Bucket gaps: FCF, Profitability, Growth, Momentum, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: n/a (retired) · min: n/a (retired)
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
B v4_pretrack #4772 Pretracking 6-rule v2 (FCF-EBITDA+ROIC-FCF) 71% win · +5.1% avg · n=7 ⏸ RETIRED
📅 2026-03-28 → 2026-03-30 · 2 day(s) · 12 recs total · grade: B (GOOD)
🧱 Composition (6 rules · stars + separation per rule)
partial: FCF-EBITDA★ n/asep n/athreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: ?
direction: unknown wins
ROIC-FCF★ n/asep n/athreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: ?
direction: unknown wins
+4 unknown★ n/asep n/athreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: ?
direction: unknown wins
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
📋 Of 12 formal recs this gate produced, 2 (17%) were actually bought (real money). Plus 0 shadow qualifiers (3+/N tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs).
💰 Real Money (bought): 2 logged · 0 priced (awaiting price refresh)
Formal Recs (logged, not bought) 7 priced / 10 total · 3 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
Tickers that scored high enough to be formally logged as a rec but were never purchased. Useful counterfactual: would we have done better if we had bought them?
Win rate
71.4%
Avg return
+5.07%
Median return
+10.43%
Best
SKYT +24.4%
Worst
WW -34.9%
⚠ Avg (+5.1%) and median (+10.4%) diverge significantly — a few outlier returns are skewing the average. Median is more representative of typical recs.
Top winners: SKYT +24.4% · ACHC +19.9% · AAP +12.8%
Top losers: WW -34.9% · PLTR -5.0%
Shadow (qualified, not bought): No recs logged under this gate
Combined (all three) 7 priced / 12 total · 5 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
All three streams blended for largest-N view of gate performance.
Win rate
71.4%
Avg return
+5.07%
Median return
+10.43%
Best
—
Worst
—
⚠ Avg (+5.1%) and median (+10.4%) diverge significantly — a few outlier returns are skewing the average. Median is more representative of typical recs.
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: — none with negative return
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: no bucket mappings found
Bucket gaps: FCF, Profitability, Valuation, Growth, Debt_Capital, Quality_Composite, Momentum, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: n/a (retired) · min: n/a (retired)
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
C v3_pretrack #1539 Pretracking 6-rule v1 57% win · +2.1% avg · n=7 ⏸ RETIRED
📅 2026-03-24 → 2026-03-27 · 3 day(s) · 15 recs total · grade: C (OK)
🧱 Composition (6 rules · stars + separation per rule)
unknown★ n/asep n/athreshold n/acoverage n/a
sm_col: ?
direction: unknown wins
📊 Performance (Real Money + Shadow + Combined)
📋 Of 15 formal recs this gate produced, 7 (47%) were actually bought (real money). Plus 0 shadow qualifiers (3+/N tickers that passed the gate but weren't logged as formal recs).
💰 Real Money (bought) 7 priced / 7 total
Recs we actually purchased — was_bought=TRUE. The truest measure of how much money this gate made or lost.
Win rate
57.1%
Avg return
+2.07%
Median return
+0.76%
Best
APP +11.1%
Worst
CART -6.4%
Top winners: APP +11.1% · HALO +8.3% · NVDA +7.1%
Top losers: CART -6.4% · VIK -4.3% · ITRN -2.1%
Formal Recs (logged, not bought): 8 logged · 0 priced (awaiting price refresh)
Shadow (qualified, not bought): No recs logged under this gate
Combined (all three) 7 priced / 15 total · 8 unpriced (recent buy / 0 placeholder / #DIV/0!)
All three streams blended for largest-N view of gate performance.
Win rate
57.1%
Avg return
+2.07%
Median return
+0.76%
Best
—
Worst
—
Top winners: — none with positive return
Top losers: — none with negative return
🪣 Profile (buckets + coverage)
Bucket profile: no bucket mappings found
Bucket gaps: FCF, Profitability, Valuation, Growth, Debt_Capital, Quality_Composite, Momentum, Super_Metric
Coverage avg: n/a (retired) · min: n/a (retired)
→ Open in Gate Alts → Direction Stability
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